Dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016

Creative Commons License

SAYAN M., Hınçal E., Şanlıdağ T., Kaymakamzade B., Sa’ad F. T., Baba I. A.

Quality and Quantity, vol.52, pp.711-723, 2018 (Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 52
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11135-017-0648-7
  • Journal Name: Quality and Quantity
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.711-723
  • Keywords: Basic reproduction ratio, Dynamics, Equilibrium points, HIV/AIDS, Stability, Turkey
  • Open Archive Collection: AVESIS Open Access Collection
  • Manisa Celal Bayar University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model that studies the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016. We find two equilibrium points, disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Global stability analysis of the equilibria was conducted using Lyapunov function which depends on the basic reproduction ratio R0. If R0 < 1, the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, and if R0 ≥ 1 the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. We computed and predicted the basic reproduction ratios across all the years. It was found out that there were flaws in the exact values of R0 which is related to the poor registration system of HIV/AIDS in Turkey. Hence, there is need for the government to improve the system in order to cover the actual cases of the disease. The increase of the basic reproduction ratio over the years also shows the need for the relevant authorities to adopt appropriate control measures in combating the disease.