Predicting the 28-day mortality rate in elderly patients with community acquired pneumonia: Evaluation of 11 risk prediction scores Toplum kökenli pnömonili yaşli hastalarda 28 günlük mortalite oraninin öngörülmesi: 11 risk tahmin skorunun değerlendirmesi


ELBİ H., BİLGE A., Dayangaç H. İ., Dikmen O.

Turk Geriatri Dergisi, cilt.20, sa.4, ss.254-263, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 20 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Dergi Adı: Turk Geriatri Dergisi
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.254-263
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Aged, Mortality, Pneumonia
  • Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Introduction: Community-acquired pneumonia frequently causes infectious diseaserelated morbidity and mortality among patients. Elderly patients are at a higher risk of developing severe Community-acquired pneumonia due to underlying diseases and changes in health status. We evaluated the performance of existing risk scores for predicting the 28-day mortality rate in elderly patients presenting with Community-acquired pneumonia to Emergency Department. Materials and Method: We evaluated 151 elderly patients [mean age, 76.6±7.8 years (range, 65-94 years); 65.6% men] with Community-acquired pneumonia. There were 30 deaths by day 28, with an all-cause mortality rate of 19.9%. All scores, except the CAP-PIRO, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.700. Z-test was used to determine significant differences between the scores. Results: We evaluated 151 elderly patients [mean age, 76.6±7.8 years (range, 65-94 years); 65.6% men] with Community-acquired pneumonia. There were 30 deaths by day 28, with an all-cause mortality rate of 19.9%. All scores, except the CAP-PIRO, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.700. Z-test was used to determine significant differences between the scores. Conclusion: Of the existing scores, 4 had good discriminatory power to predict the 28-day mortality rate. The best discrimination was demonstrated by CURB-age, a score designed for elderly patients with Community-acquired pneumonia. Additional research is necessary to determine the best risk score for predicting early mortality rates in elderly patients with Community-acquired pneumonia.