Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Critical Debates in Social Sciences, Bedriye TUNÇSİPER, Ferhan SAYIN, Editör, Frontpage Publications, London, ss.717-728, 2018
Fiscal risks pose a threat for economies that have limited ability to manoeuvre in public finance. The 2007-09 global crisis has revealed the fiscal fragilities and fiscal sustainability problems of the countries. This crisis has demonstrated that some countries have the ability to finance debts relatively cheaply but some have not. Therefore, the early recognition of crises and increasing predictability of fiscal fragilities are crucial issue in order to minimize the negative effects of crises. Economies take measures against crises by using monetary and fiscal policies. If the necessary measures are not taken, economies may experience significant production loss. For this reason, the periods of stagnation and regression can be seen in the growth trends of the economies. The fact that monetary policies are sometimes insufficient against crises has caused countries to give more weight to fiscal policies. Through fiscal policies, countries have demonstrated their public power and have sought ways of getting out of crises. Consequently, the level of influence of a country from a crisis or an unusual economic event is directly related to the fragility level of its economy. The paper is organized as follows. The next section is a literature review related to early warning systems that focus on fiscal crises. Section 3 describes the background of Turkey’s fiscal fragility. Section 4 expresses the data used, elaborates methodology applied to create the fiscal fragility index and explains the findings. Section 5 presents the conclusion and final section contains discussion and recommendations.