Research Information System
ISPEC 13. International Congress on Social Sciences & Humanities, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 16 - 20 September 2025, pp.522-529, (Full Text)
The relationship between a country’s
economic development and its demographic structure is critical for determining
long-term policies. In particular, how the dependency burden on the working-age
population affects the potential and sustainability of an economy is one of the
main research topics. The aim of this study is to analyze whether there is a
causality relationship between economic growth and dependency ratios of
different age groups in Türkiye for the period 1990-2024. The analysis is
performed by Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test after analyzing whether the
series contain unit root or not by Fourier GLS unit root test. According to the
test results, a unidirectional and statistically significant causality relationship
is found between GDP growth and the old-age dependency ratio. This finding
suggests that changes in economic growth affect the ratio of the elderly
population to the working-age population. However, no causality relationship
was found from the old-age dependency ratio to GDP growth. On the other hand,
no causality relationship was found between total and young age dependency
ratios and GDP growth. These results suggest that economic growth in the
Turkish economy affects the demographic structure, especially the proportion of
the elderly population, but the demographic structure itself does not have a
direct causal effect on growth.