Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
COMPARATIVE MIGRATION STUDIES, cilt.13, sa.1, 2025 (SSCI)
One of the most important reasons for international migration is unemployment, along with economic concerns. Domestic and international migration movements generally take place from regions with high unemployment to the regions where unemployment is low. Therefore, analyzing the labor market is important for predicting and directing migration movements. The World Bank grouping of countries includes 47 country groups according to their geographical and income status. In our study, the unemployment hysteresis of 48 groups, which includes the average of these 47 country groups and the world in general, has been analyzed. For the analysis of the unemployment hysteresis, six different variables were used: total unemployment rate, female unemployment rate, male unemployment rate, youth unemployment rate, youth female unemployment rate, and youth male unemployment rate. For analysis of unemployment hysteresis, the Fourier PANIC panel unit root test, which entered the literature in 2023, was used. Significant results were obtained for country groups. The results of the analysis show that the unemployment hysteresis is valid for total unemployment worldwide, while the natural rate hypothesis is prominent for youth and young males. While hysteresis is observed in total and male unemployment in low- and middle-income countries, the natural rate hypothesis is generally valid in high-income countries; however, hysteresis persists in female unemployment. Therefore, at the global level, encouraging controlled and need-driven migration movements from regions where the unemployment hysteresis is valid to regions where the natural rate hypothesis is valid, can contribute to reducing imbalances in labor markets. At the national level, selective labor transfer policies, taking into account labor market needs, can be implemented from regions with high unemployment hysteresis.