The Role of Scoring in Predicting Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease


Oral A., Gurmen E. S., YORGANCIOĞLU M.

Eurasian Journal of Emergency Medicine, vol.24, no.2, pp.106-110, 2025 (ESCI, TRDizin) identifier identifier

Abstract

Aim: In this study, we aimed to determine the role of BAP-65, DECAF and DECAF-L scores in predicting morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. These scores offer a potential standardized approach for evaluating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations in the emergency department. Materials and Methods: This is a prospective observational study including COPD patients admitted to the emergency department. BAP-65, DECAF and DECAF-L scores were calculated. Initial outcomes including discharge, hospitalization or transfer to the intensive care unit, 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality were recorded. Results: A total of 200 patients were included. BAP-65, DECAF and DECAF-L scores were significantly associated with the type of initial outcomes (discharge, hospital admission, or intensive care unit admission) and (p<0.001 for each). Lactate values were higher in deceased patients than in survived patients (p=0.004). When the lactate value increased by 1 unit, the risk of 30-day mortality increased by 35.8%. A significant difference was found between 30-day mortality and the DECAF-L score obtained by adding lactate to the DECAF score (area under the curve=0.653; p=0.039). This risk increased by 29.6% when the DECAF-L value increased by 1 unit. Conclusion: Increasing the use of BAP-65, DECAF, and DECAF-L scores in the decision for discharge or hospitalization in COPD patients admitted to emergency departments will provide great convenience. In addition, we believe that it would be beneficial to increase the use of the DECAF-L score, which was found to be effective in predicting mortality in emergency departments.