Validity of the Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis in the Turkic Republics: Lee and Tieslau (2019) Panel Unit Root Test with Two Breaks

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Yağmur İ.

SOSYOEKONOMI, cilt.33, sa.65, ss.295-314, 2025 (ESCI)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 33 Sayı: 65
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.03.14
  • Dergi Adı: SOSYOEKONOMI
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.295-314
  • Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aims to test the validity of the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in the Turkic Republics (Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan) with annual data covering the period 1991-2023. For this purpose, Lee and Tieslau's (2019) two-break panel unit root test was used as a method in the analysis part of the study. In the study, general, female, male, youth, young female and young male unemployment rates of six (6) countries were analysed separately. When the panel unit root results of Lee and Tieslau (2019) unemployment rates are analysed, according to the LM statistic results calculated for Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, it is seen that there is no hysteresis effect in all countries. Therefore, the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis does not apply to the Turkic Republics during the relevant period.