THE IMPACT OF TÜRKİYE’S AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ON THE VALUE ADDED OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: FOURIER TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY TEST


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Yağmur İ., Akcan A. T.

16th International Baskent Congress on Social, Humanities, Administrative, and Educational Sciences Congress, Ankara, Türkiye, 10 - 12 Eylül 2025, ss.251-259, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

Özet

The agricultural sector, one of the pillars of the Turkish economy, has always been of strategic importance due to its share in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), its contribution to employment, and its export potential. The sector’s performance directly affects a country’s economic stability and growth dynamics. In this context, the agricultural sector’s relationship with foreign trade is critically important for the sector’s sustainable growth. In this study, the effect of agricultural raw material exports and imports on the added value of the agricultural sector in the Turkish economy was analyzed using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test for the period 1990-2024. According to the analysis results, a unidirectional and statistically significant causality relationship from agricultural raw material exports to the added value of the agricultural sector has been identified. However, no causality relationship was found between agricultural raw material imports and the added value of the agricultural sector. These findings reveal that exports are a driving force in the growth and overall performance of the agricultural sector in Türkiye, and therefore the sector’s value added is directly affected by changes in foreign sales.