Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
12. International Göbeklitepe Scientific Studies Congress, Şanlıurfa, Türkiye, 21 - 22 Eylül 2025, ss.259-268, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
The relationship between the current account balance, which reflects
an economy’s external balance, and interest rates, one of the fundamental tools
of monetary policy, is of great importance for understanding macroeconomic
stability. Particularly in countries like Türkiye that experience current
account deficits, the potential impact of fluctuations in the current account
balance on interest rates is a critical research topic. This study examines how
the current account balance affects deposit interest rates in the Turkish
economy using annual data covering the period 1990-2024 through a causality
analysis. The analysis was performed using the Fourier ADF unit root test and
the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the results of the
Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a unidirectional and statistically
significant causality relationship was found from the current account balance
to deposit interest rates. This finding shows that changes in the current
account balance affect deposit interest rates, but changes in interest rates do
not have a significant effect on the current account balance. These results
reveal that the current account deficit financing requirement in an economy can
exert pressure on interest rate policies and that the current account balance
outlook emerges as an important factor in determining interest rates.